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Energy for tomorrow : division 3.2 energy and the economy = Energie demain. Progres technologique et amelioration des consommations specifiques. World Energy Conference [14, 17-22 Sep. 1989, Montreal].



Will the stabilization of energy consumption and the decrease of energy intensity in G.N.P. observed in OEDC countries since 1974, continue in the future, now energy prices have strongly decreased? Among the factors determining the evolution of energy consumption, technical progress induces a steady decrease of specific consumption in all sectors: -in road transportation, by a drop of the specific consumption of cars and, in the future by the development of traffic management technologies. -in industry through a decrease of the specific consumption of industrial processes (observed over several decades even when the price of energy was low). -in the residential sector by the development of new architecture, building components and equipments. The R D effort conducted since the first and especially the second oil shock has not yet induced significant energy savings because of commercialization delay and equipments replacement; this effort is being carried further and the largest impacts will appear in the future. The reduction in energy consumption does not result from a technological stock but more precisely from the technical progress flow. Other objectives such as environment, security, industrial productivity are becoming priorities and will often draw the technical progress through to improve energy efficiency. The reduction in energy consumption that we could anticipate at medium term thanks to the progress of research and development is important and is not rightly considered in the forescast of energy consumption. Besides this decreasing trend in specific consumption in developed countries, the uncertainty lies in the potential change in sociological and organizational parameters. EVOLUTION DE L'INTENSITE ENERGETIQUE DU P.I.B. DE DIFFERENTS PAYS. LES VEHICULES AUTOMOBILES. LES CONSOMMATIONS SPECIFIQUES DES ACTIVITES. Evolution des consommations spécifiques. La consommation spécifique de la production de sucre: un exemple du potentiel de progrés technique. Consommation spécifique et investissements industriels. LE SECTEUR DU LOGEMENT: DU DEVELOPPEMENT TECHNOLOGIQUE A LA REGLEMENTATION. LE PROGRES TECHNIQUE EST GENERALEMENT SOUS ESTIME DANS LES PREVISIONS DE LA DEMAND D'ENERGIE. CONCLUSION: PROGRES TECHNIQUE, INCERTITUDES SOCIOLOGIQUES ET ROLE DES POUVOIRS PUBLICS. BIBLIOGRAPHIE. RESUME.

Presenta gráfs.

Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía. Secretaría de Planificación del Sub-Sector Energía - Centro de Información de Energía y Ambiente, CIENA

Grettel Ruiz Matarrita

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