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Application of a methodology for evaluation of intertechnology tradeoffs : an illustrative case study. ANL/EFS-TM.

1980

149
CIENA

This case study applies a methodology for the evaluation of intertechnology tradeoffs (MEIT). The problem is to select the best R D strategy for developing long-term energy technologies that use coal. Best is defined in terms of 11 attributes or measures of performance. Uncertainties were determined for the many, complex outcomes that may result from each strategy, and the information was systematically structured for evaluation. Preferences for the various outcomes were quantified by assesing a multiatribute utility function over the 11 single attributes. The best alternative was chosen using maximization of expected utility as a guide. Extensive sensitivity analysis showed that one strategy, evolutionary development, was the best over a wide range of plausible assumptions. This is partly beacuse the alternative coal technologies are quite similar. However, the insights gained justify the extra effort spent in doing the utility analysis.. INTRODUCTION. STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPING ADVANCED COAL-FIRED TECHNOLOGIES TO GENERATE ELECTRICITY. Objective. Technology Descriptions. Strategy Descriptions. OBJECTIVES FOR EVALUATION AND COMPARISON OF STRATEGIES. Objective Hierarchy. Attribute Specification. IMPACTS AND COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES. Technology Performance Data. Electricity Demand. Market Penetration.Branch Probabilities. Calculating Outcomes. COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES. Results of Preference Assessments. Discussion of Preference Assessment. Application of Preferencie Assessment. Comparison with Other Preference Funtions. CONCLUSIONS.

Presenta gráfs. y tbls.

Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía. Secretaría de Planificación del Sub-Sector Energía - Centro de Información de Energía y Ambiente, CIENA

Grettel Ruiz Matarrita

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